It's no secret that Nikolai Kulemin is struggling this season. Fresh off a 30 goal campaign in 2010-11, expectations were high.

Early struggles led to lowered confidence. Goals became more and more infrequent, assists soon followed suit. Now we stand 54 games into the 2011-12 season and Kulemin has only 5 goals and 23 points. Things are magnified even more with Clarke MacArthur and Mikhail Grabovski racking up their point totals in the last few weeks. So what is it exactly that has led to these decreased totals? Let's take a look.

            First off, let's discount some obvious theories:

As you can see, most of these stats show no problem. His Corsi isn't bad, considering most of the team is negative. His team's shooting/save percentage numbers when he's on the ice are slightly above average, which obviously puts his PDO in that range as well. His point totals are not going down because of a lack of offensive zone starts, because he starts a majority of his shifts there. However, one thing to look at here is how often he finishes his shifts outside the offensive end. A drop of nearly five percent is nothing to sneeze at and indicates a deficit elsewhere.

            The answer is a rather simple one:

He is involved physically slightly less this season and his checks this season have come in areas where puck retrieval usually is not the outcome. However, it is his shot totals that you should be paying close attention to. It is difficult to replicate a 30 goal season when you shoot over 50 fewer times. What's even more interesting is where he's shooting from. Here's a look at his shots over the last 5 games this season, courtesy of NHL.com:

            Only 6 shots (1.2 per game) and none below the hash marks. To illustrate my point, here are his shots in a similar period (Feb. 1st-8th) of 5 games last season:

            Besides the obvious differences in goals (4:0) and shots (10:6), look at where the shots are coming from. Many of them came from right around the slot in front of the net, while this season Kulemin has struggled to even hit the net from the blue line. It's not difficult at all to see why his goal totals have plummeted.

            Coming up with a reason for the decline in his shot production and quality is something you need to intuit outside of a statistical inquiry. Many will be quick to blame coach Ron Wilson for his struggles, but I'm not so sure that's the problem. Like with his two linemates, I believe that MacArthur's suspension early in the season played a vital role in diminishing Kulemin's confidence early. The line of Frattin, Grabovski and Kulemin did little during his absence. Grabovski never really struggled as badly at the start of the season, so it's not impossible to see why his confidence returned so quickly. For Kulemin, it seems as if the lack of confidence has snowballed to the point where it seems this season is an aberration. Based on his advanced stats, which are not bad at all, Kulemin is an easy candidate for a bounce back season next year. A confident Kulemin in the playoffs could make the difference for the Leafs.

Joe Cino @MLHS_JOE

Share this post